California Gets Rain, More on the Way

You knew the stock market was right on the verge of turning around when BusinessWeek ran a cover story on Aug. 13, 1979, with the title, “The Death of Equities.”  You knew it again when Bill Gross, whom The Wall Street Journal dubbed “The Bond King” said the same thing on July 31, 2012.

So it shouldn’t be a surprise that the very day Huffington Post runs a story, “Without Water, Will There Be Wine in California?” that rain would fall, soaking San Francisco and Southern California and dumping as much as 10 inches of snow in the northern Sierra.

And there’s more on the way, say forecasters, who are expecting as much as 7 inches of rain on Bay Area mountains and two feet of snow in the Sierra.

That’s not enough to recover to normal levels of water supply.  But it is enough to bring much needed relief to vintners and others.  It’s likely there will be more rain this year . . . and next year is expected to see the return of El Nino, which always means heavier-than-normal rainfall in California.

Helpful Hint to Media Prognosticators:  You can almost always go wrong assuming the present trend will continue, especially when that trend has reached an absurd level.  If you’re going to predict, it’s better to predict the trend will reverse “soon.”

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