Mark D. Swartzberg, lead beverage analyst at Nicholas Stifel & Co. isn’t discouraged in his affection for Anheuser-Busch InBev despite the global beer giant’s lackluster U.S. results.
He notes that “managers continue to aim for flat volume and low single-digit rev/HL gains annually.” But not to worry, even though he expects a protracted share erosion for Bud Light especially and also Budweiser to continue.
One reason: ABI describes both Michelob Ultra and Stella Artois as enjoying low penetration, “suggesting strong growth is likely to continue for several years.” Also: The pending acquisition of Wicked Weed would bring the craft brewery count to 11 “and therefore suited to scaling on a regional basis.”
Outside the U.S., Swartzberg sees growth, growth and more growth. And that’s enough for Swartzberg to lift he revenue and EBITDA forecasts. He notes “manager’s obvious enthusiasm for scaling global brands,” which now represent 25% of global revenue.